Author: Ray Tenenbaum
This past weekend our family was very interested in the NHL Draft, because both my kids have played against, practiced with or know several of the draft-eligible players. What was surprising to me was the number of exceptional players we are familiar with who did not end up getting drafted. Specifically, there were several players who did not get selected that were seen as ‘special’ for several years and almost all of them are committed to play DI college hockey – most of them at top schools.
However, knowing that there were only 225 players selected in the 2024 NHL Draft, I wondered how many of the players selected were American? From there, the math started to kick-in and it helped me realize just how difficult it is to get drafted to the NHL – even in the 6th or 7th round.
Here is how the players selected in the draft breaks out by country:
2024 NHl Draft Picks by Country
Then, when looking at just the American players, you see that by their draft year, almost all the players are playing at the USHL level or higher. Those who aren’t playing USHL or better this past season, surely will by this fall.
2024 NHL American Draft Picks By Level
Odds of Being Drafted
Now let’s estimate how many players were eligible in the U.S. to be drafted. If we look at the number of teams for a single birth year, this year’s draft class was playing 15O hockey during the 2021-22 season. That year there were 113 15O AAA teams according to MyHockeyRankings.To make the math simple, let’s assume most of the Minnesota High School and New England Prep School players also played on a 15O AAA Club team. Therefore there were about 113 x 20 = 2250 players who played AAA or better who were eligible to be drafted this year in the U.S. But only 39 or 1.7% were drafted. Another way to look at it is, that less than 2 full rosters of players ended up being drafted this year. And if you didn’t make the US NTDP team, your chances dropped by ~40% (when you include NTDP alumnni playing elsewhere this past season).
There is Still a Chance
Another interesting piece of data I learned recently is where NHL players were drafted by round. No surprise that the most players drafted were in the 1st and 2nd round. But what was surprising is that there were more undrafted players in the NHL than 3rd round selections.
Bottom line, it is very hard to get drafted. Even harder to make the NHL. But if you didn’t get drafted, there is still hope to make it as an undrafted player.
(Updated June 29, 2024)
Since the end of this past season, at the NCAA DI women’s hockey level, there have been nine head coaching changes, along with the announcement of Allison Coomey as the first Head Coach at Delaware.
| School | Old Coach | New Coach |
| Assumption | Jack Sweeney | Joe Grossman |
| Bemidji State | Jim Scanlan | Amber Frykland |
| Colgate | Greg Fargo | Stefan Decosse |
| Dartmouth | Liz Keady Norton | Maura Crowell |
| Delaware | N/A | Allison Coomey |
| Minnesota-Duluth | Maura Crowell | Laura Schuler |
| Minnesota State | John Harrington | Shari Dickerman |
| Post | Gretchen Silverman | Pat Bingham |
| St Michael’s | Chris Donovan | Meghan Sweezey |
| Union | Josh Sciba | TBD |
Coaching changes can occur for various reasons—positive, neutral, or negative. These may include retirement (e.g., Bemidji State, Minnesota State), a coach moving on to a new opportunity (e.g., Colgate, UMD), or a coach’s contract not being renewed due to on-ice performance or program dynamics. Often, it may be a combination of these reasons. When there is a change at the top, it can have multiple implications for potential recruits, current commits, and existing players.
Potential Scenarios from a Recruiting Perspective
- Status Quo – A planned succession process is in place. Generally, the same principles or cultural philosophies will be maintained with minimal changes, aside from the new coach adding their personal touch to the team.
- New Sheriff in Town – The new head coach brings in their own assistants, changing the entire leadership of the coaching staff.
- Best of Both Worlds – A hybrid approach that combines the best of the old with new ideas and personnel.
Impact on Potential Recruits
If you are a player interested in a school undergoing a head coaching change, you could be directly affected. You might have built a relationship with the previous coaching staff over several years at showcases or camps, which influenced your interest in the school. With a new coach, you may need to establish new relationships and reassess your interest.
For players from the Class of 2026 who are now eligible to speak with the school, conversations might be delayed or paused due to the transition. Currently, there are a few top schools without head coaches (e.g., Colgate, Minnesota Duluth, Union), and it’s unlikely that players will commit until a new head coach is appointed.
Additionally, a “New Sheriff in Town” head coach may have their own list of potential recruits, which could exclude you. Thus, having backup options is advisable.
Impact on Incoming Recruits
Data from recent years suggests that most of the time, incoming and future commits remain unaffected by a new head coach; both the coaching staff and the recruits stay committed to each other. However, there have been instances where a new head coach implements a different recruiting strategy, resulting in commits being told they no longer have a spot. Depending on the situation, a de-committed player may have limited options for the 2024 or 2025 seasons.
Conversely, NCAA rules allow players to de-commit and seek another school if they do not favor the new coach. Essentially, both parties have the opportunity to re-evaluate the relationship and decide if they want to stay together or move one from each other.
Impact on Existing Players
When a coaching change occurs, existing players have the option, under NCAA rules, to enter the transfer portal and find a different school. The NCAA grants a 30-day immediate portal window for players whose head coach departs. Recently, I spoke with a parent of a first-year player at a top DI women’s team who expressed concerns about uncertainty. The player loved the previous coaching staff and culture, and there is nervousness about whether the same philosophies will continue under the new staff.
Similar to minor hockey, any time a player gets a new coach, they must adjust. Most players will need to re-establish their role on the team, which could affect their ice time. Each student-athlete should evaluate their situation and decide whether to stay or explore options in the transfer portal. Ideally, new coaches will take the time to get to know their team and communicate their plans for each player, allowing players to make informed decisions.
One final point to consider is that assistant coaches are also affected by a change in head coaches. They too can experience positive or negative impacts under new leadership. In some situations, most of the staff is retained, while in others, the incumbent assistants do not return, and the new head coach assembles their own team.
Each year, USA Hockey hosts a development camp in early August for the top 76 female U18 players – this year for the 2007, 2008, and 2009 birth years (40 Forwards, 28 Defense, and 8 Goalies).
Last month, the initial 63 players were named to the camp. With the final 13 players added at the end of the 16/17s girls camp which takes place a couple of weeks earlier in mid-July. It is my understanding that players from the late-July 15’s girls camp are still not eligible for the U18 camp, regardless of how they performed at the 15’s camp (much to the chagrin of many players and parents). This year, 9 15’s (2009 birth year) players were invited directly to the U18 camp (there were 5 15’s in 2023 and 6 in 2022). So, players not invited as part of the initial U18 list do not have the opportunity to prove themselves worthy at the 15’s camp.
The one key insight from the players invited to the U18 Girls Camp for 2024 is that there were a total of 6 2007 & 2008 birth year players (out of 29 total players from those age groups) who attended the U18 Camp last year, but were not part of the 54 players (from 2007 and 2008) invited directly this year. Instead, those 6 players will need to prove themselves at the 16/17s Camp and earn their invite to the U18s Camp. One way to look at it is, (according to USA Hockey evaluators) there were at least 48 other players from their birth year who showed they were better this year than the 6 players from last year. Another way to look at it is that players should understand that they cannot take anything for granted. No spot is guaranteed.
Note: This is not the first time players have had to start at the 16/17s Camp after participating in the U18 Camp the year before. Last year, at least 2 “downgraded” players did indeed get selected to move on from 16/17s to attend the U18s camp.
June 10, 2024
Today’s Champ of the Day is Annie McDonell.
Check out Annie McDonell’s Hockey Player Profile here.
I am a 200-foot player that is relied on as a strong defender and a go-to on the penalty kill, as well as for creating space and opportunities in the offensive zone. As a two-way centre, I am recognized for both my technical skills (puck control, playmaking), as well as my relentless work ethic and ability to win tough battles in the corners.
Create your own free, beautiful hockey player profile here.
Want to be a Champ of the Day? Submit your Champs App profile!
June 8, 2024
Today’s Champ of the Day is Sara Martin.
Check out Sara Martin’s Hockey Player Profile here.
My strengths as a player are my understanding of the game, puck skills and shot and I’m always working on my skating and foot speed. I’m always the first one to the rink and rarely miss practice or games. I’m also very committed to improving my skills outside of our regular team activities and I attend a hockey specific gym for my workouts. I am also a brown belt in Jiujitsu, play for my school hockey and flag football teams and I love anything to do with being outdoors. I’ve been spending a lot of time golfing with my Dad and brother and I look forward to golf season every year to improve my game!
Create your own free, beautiful hockey player profile here.
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June 6, 2024
Today’s Champ of the Day is Gabriella Hervert.
Check out Gabriella Hervert’s Hockey Player Profile here.
As a strong two-way defenseman, I generate scoring chances through puck rushes and shots from the point. My speed and hockey vision enables me to make the first pass, while my strength and stick work protect the puck at the blue line and when defending my own net. Off ice, I’m a dedicated athlete focused on improving my physical strength and conditioning. I value direct coach feedback and have a strong work ethic. Academics is a priority as I understand the importance of education for my future.
Create your own free, beautiful hockey player profile here.
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June 5, 2024
Today’s Champ of the Day is Anna Rioux.
Check out Anna Rioux’s Hockey Player Profile here.
I have played net full time since the age of seven. I appreciate the challenge of playing against the best shooters every time I hit the ice and excel against top talent, posting a GAA of .948 in the last two seasons, while taking over 1,000 shots per season. I’ve been recognized at the Provincial level in Ontario as a top 2008 goaltender. I’m a competitor who can rise in the big moments. I look forward to the opportunities that lie ahead.
Create your own free, beautiful hockey player profile here.
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An analysis breaking down commits from the U.S., Canada and Europe. It also provides insight into relatively how good a player needs to be within their country at their position.
What percent of players of DI women’s college commits come from Canada vs. the U.S. and why does it matter? Well, if you are a female player who aspires to play at the highest level of college hockey, it is important to recognize that you aren’t only competing with the top players who play for a USA Hockey National Championship. You are also being compared to the top Canadian and European players.
In analyzing our new and improved database of women’s college hockey commits, we have been tracking where every publicly announced commit is from and where they play. As you can see below, almost 40% of all Division I players are from Canada.
Source: Elite Prospects, College Commits, Champs App analysis (as of May 21, 2024)
So, how good do you need to be to play Division I women’s college hockey?
There are 45 Division I college women’s hockey teams. Assuming 25 players on each team, with 25% graduating every year (once the Covid extra year expires after this year), then there should be about 280 openings each year (assuming no DIII transfers to DI).
USA
With 54% of players coming from the U.S., that means an American player needs to be one of the best 150 players in the U.S. for their graduation year. And if your goal is to play for a Top 25 team it means you basically need to be one of the best 80 players in the U.S.
Thus to be a DI player, you would need to be one of the:
• Top 18 goalies in the US.
• Top 42 D in the U.S.
• Top 90 forwards in the U.S.
Canada
With ~40% percent of players coming from Canada, that means a Canadian player needs to be one of the best 112 players in the Canada for their graduation year.
Drilling down a little more, at the position level, it means:
• Top 14 goalies in the Canada
• Top 31 D in the Canada
• Top 67 forwards in the Canada
It is also important to note that a large majority of Canadian players primarily go to the top 25 DI U.S. schools, otherwise they could easily stay in Canada and be closer to home. For example they could play for Julie Chu or Caroline Ouellette at Concordia University. So the competition for these top schools is probably a little higher from Canadian players, thus lower the number spots for U.S. players at these high-ranking schools.
Last weekend my 16 year-old son and I attended the Matterhorn Fit All Ivy League Men’s Hockey Showcase in Estero, Florida. The event was impeccably organized, drawing nearly two dozen coaches actively involved in coaching or scouting. One standout feature was the series of two 1-hour sessions where each coach personally introduced themselves and shared insights into their respective school’s unique hockey program. These sessions, akin to the conversations on the Champs App podcasts but more concise, provided a glimpse into the personalities behind the coaching staff and shed light on the attributes they value most in players.
Dedicated DI Coaches to Each Team
A notable aspect of the event was the assignment of a single DI coach to each team throughout all five games. This setup allowed players to develop a deeper understanding of their assigned coach over the weekend, fostering a more personalized interaction. Furthermore, the majority of coaches in attendance took the time to scout multiple games for each team, showcasing their dedication and thoroughness in talent evaluation.
One-on-One Conversations with DI Coaches
Unlike many women’s spring and summer showcases that are often bound by blackout periods limiting direct conversations with coaches, the Matterhorn Ivy League Men’s Hockey Showcase encouraged open dialogue with coaches. This facilitated valuable recruiting conversations for players, a particularly beneficial opportunity given the age range of players involved, typically spanning from 16 to 20 years old for men’s hockey recruiting, as opposed to the earlier recruitment timeline often seen in women’s DI hockey.
Thoughtful, Structured Feedback
Following the event, players received written feedback from their assigned coach, evaluating them on eight key attributes essential for potential DI players. This personalized feedback, accompanied by detailed comments, provided invaluable insights and guidance for players looking to enhance their skills and showcase their potential at the collegiate level. Having been to many women’s college hockey showcases, I wish some of them would provide the same level of valuable feedback to players.